a theatre, film & pop culture review
The Academy Award nominations will be announced tomorrow, Thursday, January 10 at 5:30 AM MT by Seth McFarlane and Emma Stone (the former will also host the actual awards show), so I thought it’s high time I offer my prediction of how it’s all going to go down.
Just because the Academy can nominate 10 films, doesn’t mean it will (as we discovered last year), and so I’m stopping at 9. If there is a tenth nominee, it’ll probably be Skyfall. There’s the ever-slim chance that The Master could be thrown in there just for show, but it’s not looking likely (and for that, I am grateful).
The top three are absolute guarantees, and the fourth probably is too. As for the fifth slot, well, that could go any number of ways. I choose to believe the Academy has good taste and will give it to QT — then again, I frequently give them more credit than they deserve. Tom Hooper received a DGA nomination for Les Misérables, so there’s a very good chance it’ll go to him instead (God help us all). But hey, maybe there’ll be a fun spoiler — Michael Haneke (Amour) or David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) — though it’s not likely.
The first three are done deals. The fourth is more than likely. The fifth? There’s still a sliver of a chance that Joaquin Phoenix will eek out a nom for The Master, but… probably not. I would also like to note that it’s a sad day when Jackman (and I would say Bradley, too) get the nom over Richard Gere who was excellent in Arbitrage. (God, I would love that spoiler.)
Let’s be honest it’s a two-women race here: Jessica vs. Jennifer. The others have no shot, but if there’s to be a spoiler, it’ll be young Quvenzhane Wallis for her beautifully honest performance in Beasts of the Southern Wild.
I’m not quite sure why Arkin is such a guarantee (does anyone really remember that performance?), but ok, he’s in. So are TLJ and PSH, and it’s lookin’ good for DeNiro, too. The fifth slot is a bit tricky, and I may be off the mark here, because Django Unchained boasts three terrific supporting performances: Waltz, Samuel L. Jackson and Leonardo DiCaprio. Waltz is the most obvious, but Jackson is the most shocking, and Leo’s probably out of the game, but even so — that’ll split the votes, leaving this spot open for either that dreamy rebel Eddie Redmayne (Les Misérables) or creepy Javiar Bardem (Skyfall). Personally, I’d give it to John Goodman for Flight, and some crackheads still insist Matthew McConaughey will pull through for Magic Mike. Hahahahahaha. Yeah, right.
Potential Spoilers: Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy) or Ann Dowd (Compliance) may knock out Maggie. Edge to Kidman.
Potential Spoiler: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Potential spoiler: Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Potential Spoilers: Kon-Tiki (Norway), The Deep (Iceland)
Potential spoiler: Any of the other shortlist contenders. This category is incredibly difficult to predict this year.
Potential spoiler: Argo
Potential Spoilers: The Master, The Hobbit
Potential spoilers: Life of Pi, The Dark Knight Rises
Potential spoiler: Les Misérables
Potential spoiler: Skyfall, The Dark Knight Rises
I can’t even begin to guess about the shorts. We’ll have to wait and see!
Happy Nominations Day!