Critical Confabulations

a theatre, film & pop culture review

Oscars 2014: Final Winner Predictions

oscarsI always joke that I would do better with my predictions if I didn’t watch/analyze everything. I do, however, keep tabs on the other pundits’ projections (who are decidedly less swayed by their own personal passions), and take that analysis into consideration when compiling my final list of predictions, which is what you see here. To read my full commentary on any given category, click on the link provided.

Now let’s get to it! I tied for my office pool last year (and won the year before), so I’m not terrible at this.  

Note: An “*” indicates that this is a change from my original prediction.

Best Picture
Prediction: Gravity
Rooting for: Her
I am so unsure about this that I might actually change my prediction at the last minute. But when I think about the “reasons” that voters may vote for 12 Years a Slave, I think of Crash vs. Brokeback Mountain, and I remember that the Academy largely prefers to vote safe. And Gravity is the safe bet and a damned good film.

Best Director
Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Rooting for: Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity

Best Actor
Prediction: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Rooting for: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Actress
Prediction: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Rooting for: Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Best Supporting Actor
Prediction: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Rooting for: Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Best Supporting Actress
Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Rooting for: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Best Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
Rooting for: Before Midnight; Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke

Best Original Screenplay
Prediction: Her, Spike Jonze
Rooting for: Her, Spike Jonze
Try as I might, I cannot let this one go. I know there’s a lot of love for American Hustle, but I. can. not. do. it.

Best Cinematography
Prediction: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki
Rooting for: Gravity, Emmanuel Lubezki

Best Film Editing
Prediction: Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse
Rooting for: Captain Phillips, Christopher Rouse

Best Production Design
Prediction: Gravity, Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin & Joanne Woollard
Rooting for: Her, K.K. Barrett & Gene Serdena

Best Visual Effects
Prediction: Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk & Neil Corbould
Rooting for: Gravity, Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk & Neil Corbould

Best Costume Design
Prediction: American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson
Rooting for: American Hustle, Michael Wilkinson

Best Makeup
Prediction: Dallas Buyers Club, Adruitha Lee & Robin Mathews
Rooting for: Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, Stephen Prouty

Best Original Score
Prediction: Gravity, Steven Price
Rooting for: Her, William Butler & Owen Pallett

Best Original Song
Prediction: “Let It Go” from Frozen
Rooting for: “The Moon Song” from Her

Best Sound Mixing
Prediction: Gravity
Rooting for: Gravity

Best Sound Editing
Prediction: Gravity
Rooting for: Gravity

Best Foreign Language Film
Prediction: The Great Beauty
Rooting for: The Great Beauty

Best Animated Feature
Prediction: Frozen
Rooting for: Ernest & Celestine

Best Documentary Feature
Prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom
Rooting for: The Square

Best Animated Short Film
Prediction: Get a Horse!*
Rooting for: Mr. Hublot
I will lose my mind if Mr. Hublot wins after all, but people love them some Mickey Mouse.

Best Live-action Short Film
Prediction: Helium*
Rooting for: Just Before Losing Everything
While the Academy likes its shorts smug, it also likes them more substantive than The Voorman Problem, so let’s go with the dying kid.

Best Documentary Short Subject
Prediction: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Rooting for: Cavedigger

Happy Oscar-ing!

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